The article was originally published on Xinhua, but deleted within several hours, that is, before it was reposted on one of Caijing's website. The deletion makes the article even more mysterious and makes one wonder what in this article is troublesome to Xinhua's editors and those at the Propaganda Department.
The article is entitled "What happens to North Korea now that Kim Jong-Il is dead?" My translation:
Kim Jong-Il is dead -- (I) wasn't so surprised to hear this. From a natural perspective, everyone dies, no matter how high his position is, how powerful he is, how much his wealth is worth, death is inevitable to everyone. So death is a natural occurrence, any rational person will face it with calm. But Kim Jong-Il's death would still bring his family and friends a sudden pain. Now that Kim Jong-Il is dead, an era has come to an end, what happens to the future North Korea?
The Chinese still have a general favorable feeling about North Korea, because no matter in ancient times or modern times, China and the country a river away have always kept friendly communications. When an ordinary Chinese mentions North Korea, Kim Il-Sung, Kim Jong-Il immediately come to their minds. In Kim Il-Sung era, North Korean revolutionary efforts progressed rapidly, and as they were just about to unify the Korean Peninsula, U.S. invasion turned the situation around, and the Korean army was suffering great lost. As their revolution was hanging on a string, and it could be said that it was the most difficult time in North Korea, Mao Zedong firmly made the decision to help North Korea fight against America, and preserved the fruits of North Korean revolution, laid ground of North Korea's map and independent development today. After North Korea entered into Kim Jong-Il era, China and North Korea have kept a close relation.
But the Kim Jong-Il era North Korea is still marred with danger and threats from all sides, especially in the recent several years, it has been facing difficulties domestically and internationally. In diplomacy, North Korea has had a series of incidents. Non stop North-South conflicts; politically, U.S., Japan and other countries are always keep a close eye on North Korea and keep stirring up conflicts in the North and South, imposing several rounds of economic sanctions on North Korea. Militarily, they urged South Korea to having military exercises and making North Korea feel an existential danger. Yet North Korea has held firm its persistent and never-compromise national policy, the submarine incident, the bombing of Yeonpyeong Island almost lead to wars, if not for the mediation and the support from China and Russia, war would have already started. North Korea lack of power would lead it to a fight to death, and this could very much lead to an all-out war or a nuclear war. Economically, North Korea has always followed a policy of seclusion. Its socio-economically development has been slow and its ordinary citizens have a very low living standards. Whenever faced with natural disasters, North Korea would have to depend on neighboring countries' aid.
North Korea's economic difficulties are ingrained into its politics: seclusion policy, tight control over the press, military dictatorship, still exercising planned economy, are the reasons why North Korea are still very backward in its economy. Even though Kim Jong-Il had come to China to visit and study a number of times, revealing that he was considering ways of reform, actual practice has not showed effectiveness.
Kim Jong-Il passed away, leaving behind a North Korea that is economically and politically backward. As his successor, the 28-year-old Kim Jong-un would probably become the new leader, but this succession leaves plenty of room for our imagination. What would happen to the future of North Korea? What road would it take? Would it still pratice the lineage-controlled Communist military dictatorship, or model after China to explore Communist reform, or accept South Korea's unification policy and step on a road to capitalism, all is a question mark.
No matter what road North Korea would take, as a neighbor and former close ally, every Chinese wish North Korea would pass the current difficulty with stability and peace. Of course, we also wish that those countries that are thinking (plotting) something will keep their rationale and give North Korea some time, and let their people voluntarily decide what they want for the future.
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