The Biggest Challenge in Handling Post-Kim-Jong-Il North Korea

Forgive me for not being able to rejoice in the death of a dictator. Kim Jong-Il died before he was able to groom his son into a full-fledged credible, powerful successor. No one is able to predict what's going to happen. Of course, when Kim Jong-Il himself took over his father's leadership, the international community had the same worries and made the same predictions: the pending collapse or implosion of the regime.

The biggest challenge in handing post-Kim-Jong-Il North Korea, IMHO, is to align the interests of major foreign players: South Korea, U.S. and China.

President Obama and President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea had an urgent phone call at midnight tonight, in which Obama assured Lee of U.S. commitments "to the stability on the Korean peninsula, and to the freedom and security of our allies." The press release was extremely short, merely restating the commitment, and stating they would be in close touch, reflecting the caution both administrations took facing the unpredictability of the North Korean situation.

What is noticeably absent is any publicized exchange between the Obama White House and China.

Let's see where each country's interest lies:

For China, the worst fear after Kim's death is the possibility of a regime collapse/ implosion. This could happen in multiple ways, one of which is the scenario of a power struggle leading to a civil war. In which case, China would mostly likely to step in before the spill over reaches its northern province.

For U.S., Kim's untimely death poses the crucial question of who has his finger on North Korea's nuclear button. The possibility of Iran or terrorists gaining access to North Korean nuclear technologies and materials significantly increased now that there is a vacuum in command and control. So in the case of a North Korean implosion, the American troops in South Korea would be the first to step in and secure the nukes.

To make matters worse, the Chinese and U.S. militaries have not talked to each other about their steps in such a scenario -- understandably, Beijing wouldn't want their North Korean "friends" to know that they are actually contemplating the possibility of North Korean collapse with capitalist America -- but as all students of international relations know, mis-understandings/communications could only exacerbate the potential for conflicts.

I can only hope that Beijing and Washington, both civilian government and military, are having candid and rigorous discussions right now, not leaving any scenario off the table.