This just came out today. It's 1:08 AM, so I don't have the time / faculty for a thought-through response, but here are a few observations.
1. There is no such thing as "accidental nuclear war". Case in point, Cuban missile crisis.
2. China/Philippines island dispute wouldn't be my first choice of serious threat. Taiwan could be. Despite the escalation of tension over the South China Sea over the past couple of years, which could be seen as "testing waters", China's commitment in its "core interest" Taiwan is much more long-term-standing; and neither U.S. or China would backpedal on their commitments there. More on this later.
3. I'm not worried about "intra-Korea war" as much as the possibility of a North Korean implosion/ collapse, which could be a real possibility with the coming succession. The scenario of a DPRK faction struggle leading to a civil war would cause China to step in and march across the Amnok River again; U.S. troops in South Korea would not sit still either. This could be a very likely launching pad for another China-U.S. war on the Peninsula. The worst thing is, there is no U.S.-China military discussion on this matter at all for [China's] fear that, its North Korean allies knowing that China is considering a plan B for the Kim regime.
4. China and India territorial dispute would not escalate to a U.S.-China nuclear confrontation; but India-Pakistan conflicts could. More on this later.
These are just my quick thoughts on Max Fisher's article. Any comments, disagreements?
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