Is U.S. in Decline?

This article appeared recently in a leading Chinese international relations journal and has got a lot of attention. Below is a précis. Most of the arguments should be familiar to many Americans, in fact, many of the arguments are probably found on the cardboards at #OccupyWallStreet. Isn't it refreshing when a scholar from the "competiting power" put it out like this?


Is U.S. in Decline?
Chu Shulong
Beijing: Contemporary International Relations, April 20, 2011, 1-6

Summary: No fundamental changes have occurred in the key American strengths such as the economy, science and technology, military strength, international political influence, cultural softpower, etc., though U.S. currently face localized difficulties and problems.

U.S. is still way ahead of the world in the following fundamental areas:

1. long-term economic growth

2. stability and influence of the political system, ideology and values. (Though greatly suffered as a result of the Iraq War)

3. science and technology, innovation. (Nobel Prizes, IT/ aviation & aerospace/ biotech/ agricultural/ military technology industries) [Ella: cue Steve Jobs]

4. the global competitiveness of U.S. companies

5. softpower/ culture (Hollywood; higher education system that attracts world’s talents)

Facing problems in the following areas:
1. competitive power of manufacturing industry dropped. [Ella: but does a developed economy necessarily need a strong manufacturing industry? What about making the transition to higher value chain? See case “The High Way to High Wages: Denmark's Answer to the U.S. Model".]

2. decline in the health, stability and quality of service industry: due to the lack of regulation of the finance sector (political funding from the big corporations; inability to regulate Wall St.; quality of service sector decline)

3. inequality in wealth distribution; middle-class not doing well; unsustainable: middle class income has grown little after the 1980s despite the growing economy, which affects the long-term economic growth because of the consumption-based economic model

4. fiscal and trade deficits: public expenditure constrained, government unable to make investment in social and economic development; danger of inflation which may cause dollar depreciation and drop in U.S.’ international competitive power

5. military spending and international strategy: “They have spent too many funds and resources on military affairs, foreign wars and foreign interference. The U.S. has not spent more wealth on its own development… To a certain extent, the U.S. is taking the wrong path that other big countries, such as the former Soviet Union, have already taken in history.”

6. population growth not accompanied by improved population quality: “Over the years, the main source for population growth in the U.S. was legal and illegal immigration from Latin America and their quite high birth rate. This group of people is generally recognized as a group with a quite low educational background, quite poor English, quite low income, quite weak consumption power, and few skills in the U.S.”

7. lax social culture and values: expansion of personal desires and power consciousness, and a decline in a sense of duty; will in learning and working hard is not strong; quality of basic education in the U.S. is not high. (Neoconservatives have tried to change but due to some of their extreme policies and actions, their influence in U.S. politics and society has gradually declined.)